Will technology prevent loneliness?
Loneliness can cause many mental and physical health problems, government can take action but can technology also potentially prevent this problem?
Technology has done a lot to match singletons with dating websites and apps over the past decade, matching people up who might have never met but can technology do this for a more tech savvy older generation?
With a more tech savvy nation and wider use of tables and smart phones, this can result in lonely older people more likely to find people to spend time with.
Friday, 6 December 2013
Friday, 22 November 2013
Reform not just aid
Giving money to poor countries can often fails to result in long term benefits as we would hope, could giving advance on how to improve their economy help more than just aid itself?
Giving people money and advice when the government have policies that is hurting the free market can prevent the economy from improving and helping citizens. People and government need advice just as much as aid.
Haiti school podcast on how helping doesn't always work the way we would like.
Giving money to poor countries can often fails to result in long term benefits as we would hope, could giving advance on how to improve their economy help more than just aid itself?
- If we give a country money to build schools they may not know how to organize a school building project and waste money and when we leave they wouldn't have the money to build new schools.
- We could build schools for them but then when we leave they would not have people with skills to organize how to build a school or a company that can build schools for them.
- What if we train people to know how to manage building a school? this is a better opinion.
Giving people money and advice when the government have policies that is hurting the free market can prevent the economy from improving and helping citizens. People and government need advice just as much as aid.
- Welfare reformThe same advice is also true to help the worse off in western countries, just giving them money is not the answer giving people skills is the best way off of poverty for the worse off. Government need to put more effort to helping these people have the skills for better jobs so they can be better off.
Haiti school podcast on how helping doesn't always work the way we would like.
Labour just being nit picking
Imagine listening to classical music for the first time, it can seem at first all the songs sound pretty much the same though anyone who enjoys classical music may highly disagree.
When political arguments shift rapidly for politicians the public can be left behind thinking these arguments are pretty much the same and may not see the importance of those differences.
This has happened happened with changes to the NHS, selling off big or little pieces of the heath service, the importance of having transparency, not allowing companies to bid based on price. When arguments have changed so much for a group of people they may not see the difference between each policy or really see how important certain policies are.
The BBC doesn't create all their TV shows but has production companies create shows. If the BBC was to say "We want a comedy show for BBC3 and will give the contract to the lowest bidder." I think we can understand that easier for why that is a worse model than commissioning TV show after seeing a pilot or for a new series.
Imagine listening to classical music for the first time, it can seem at first all the songs sound pretty much the same though anyone who enjoys classical music may highly disagree.
When political arguments shift rapidly for politicians the public can be left behind thinking these arguments are pretty much the same and may not see the importance of those differences.
This has happened happened with changes to the NHS, selling off big or little pieces of the heath service, the importance of having transparency, not allowing companies to bid based on price. When arguments have changed so much for a group of people they may not see the difference between each policy or really see how important certain policies are.
The BBC doesn't create all their TV shows but has production companies create shows. If the BBC was to say "We want a comedy show for BBC3 and will give the contract to the lowest bidder." I think we can understand that easier for why that is a worse model than commissioning TV show after seeing a pilot or for a new series.
Monday, 11 November 2013
Chicken and egg problem in voting
Lack of voters in certain demographics can cause parties to ignore that demographic, especially if it's very difficult to persuade them to vote.
But how can we combat this problem were parties don't make policies for certain groups of people because it's difficult to get them to vote and they don't want to vote as politician don't represent those people?
I'm not against forcing people to vote but that seems like its dealing with the consequences of voter apathy and not the cause of it.
So what can we try to try and get people to vote?
Uneducated electorate
The quality of voting is just as important as getting more people to vote, does forcing or encouraging people to vote encouraging them to understand the policies as well, or could it lead to a worse political environment overall?
Lack of voters in certain demographics can cause parties to ignore that demographic, especially if it's very difficult to persuade them to vote.
But how can we combat this problem were parties don't make policies for certain groups of people because it's difficult to get them to vote and they don't want to vote as politician don't represent those people?
I'm not against forcing people to vote but that seems like its dealing with the consequences of voter apathy and not the cause of it.
So what can we try to try and get people to vote?
- Allow major political issues to be explained in depth on TV similar to shows on radio 4, to give more people the chance to understand more complex political stances and ideas.
- Could the electoral commission force bigger parties to spend a proportion of their money encouraging certain low voting demographics to vote
- Could forcing first time voters to vote encourage parties to aim polices at these people giving them a reason to vote and see that follow through to other elections, or if you saw a high percentage of people not voting in their second election, would it lead to policies aimed at first time voters and ignoring people after that?
Uneducated electorate
The quality of voting is just as important as getting more people to vote, does forcing or encouraging people to vote encouraging them to understand the policies as well, or could it lead to a worse political environment overall?
What is a bubble?
Are markets efficient at estimating the value of stocks with the information at hand or can markets be irrational and if so is there anything we can do about it?
Are all bubbles the same? Does a bubble always lead to a burst and are some bursts always preceded by the same type of bubble? Not every collapse in a market is preceded by an overvalued bubble, but can occur due to low demand in the market not foreseen, but how can one say when a burst was due to changes in a market not foreseen or because of an over valuation that the investors also did not see?
Irrational crowds
Surely crowds are as smart as the people that make up the crowd, but crowds can act in seemingly irrational ways.
It's true crowds can be irrational but is this why bubbles are created? And even if it is, the same problem is true how can I know if a market is over valued or when will it just change due to changes in the market not foresaw?
Planet money podcast on bubbles
More or less podcst on bubbles
Are markets efficient at estimating the value of stocks with the information at hand or can markets be irrational and if so is there anything we can do about it?
Are all bubbles the same? Does a bubble always lead to a burst and are some bursts always preceded by the same type of bubble? Not every collapse in a market is preceded by an overvalued bubble, but can occur due to low demand in the market not foreseen, but how can one say when a burst was due to changes in a market not foreseen or because of an over valuation that the investors also did not see?
Irrational crowds
Surely crowds are as smart as the people that make up the crowd, but crowds can act in seemingly irrational ways.
- One person may feel his one vote doesn't make a different so doesn't vote, but when many people don't vote their votes together couldn't changed elections.
- An investor selling stocks in anticipation of other people selling their stocks who are anticipating him selling his stocks, due to bad new information about those stocks.
It's true crowds can be irrational but is this why bubbles are created? And even if it is, the same problem is true how can I know if a market is over valued or when will it just change due to changes in the market not foresaw?
Planet money podcast on bubbles
More or less podcst on bubbles
Monday, 4 November 2013
Should Greece go back to the Drachma?
Greece's debt is in foreign currencies, if Greece devalues with a devaluing currency their debt will increase compared to the Drachma and could lead to a death spiral in debt repayments.
Greece can already devalue by taking lower salaries. In a future post I will be looking into some of the mistakes the IMF made in policy advice to Greece and how they can learn from their mistakes for future policies.
Greece's debt is in foreign currencies, if Greece devalues with a devaluing currency their debt will increase compared to the Drachma and could lead to a death spiral in debt repayments.
Greece can already devalue by taking lower salaries. In a future post I will be looking into some of the mistakes the IMF made in policy advice to Greece and how they can learn from their mistakes for future policies.
Stability in business
Business' want stability and profits, sometimes companies can put long term stability at risk due to the pressure on surviving in business. This is not necessarily business' fault just how economics works, it's similar to athletes who can put their long term health at risk by taking certain drugs to improve short term goals.
Retail and investment banks
Combining the retail banks and the investment banks adds greater risk to the whole economy if you potentially go under as everyone loses their money, the benefits for the company is using the money from the retail banks in the investment banks what is more profitable.
Any company that decide to combine both sides of the bank can make more profit and make better offers to customers. Even though decisions like these can make you more unstable in the long run, any company that decides not to combine both sides of the bank can be less profitable and is more likely to go out of business, so you will more likely see companies putting their stability at risk to survive in the short term.
Business' want stability and profits, sometimes companies can put long term stability at risk due to the pressure on surviving in business. This is not necessarily business' fault just how economics works, it's similar to athletes who can put their long term health at risk by taking certain drugs to improve short term goals.
Retail and investment banks
Combining the retail banks and the investment banks adds greater risk to the whole economy if you potentially go under as everyone loses their money, the benefits for the company is using the money from the retail banks in the investment banks what is more profitable.
Marxism and stability
Marx thought there was an inherit unsuitability running through the history of capitalism. One of his ideas was if bosses got their way and paid their workers less and less, then those workers would have less and less to buy what the bosses are selling, driving a decline in the economy. But a squeeze in workers earning doesn't always mean there will be a decline in the economy.
In the past workers got the money and bought the products as well as making the product, so a decline in wages meant a decline in demand. But when bosses have a larger share of the profits to spend they have more power on demand, so they can sustain the demand.
Housing
This effect can be seen in certain saturated housing markets, where the landlord is the boss and the tenant as the worker.
So even when less people have buying power to own their own home, there are enough landlords to own the majority of the homes in the area and they are the ones who keep the housing market prompt up. And if home building is slow enough any new homes that are build will be consumed by these landlords.
Marx thought there was an inherit unsuitability running through the history of capitalism. One of his ideas was if bosses got their way and paid their workers less and less, then those workers would have less and less to buy what the bosses are selling, driving a decline in the economy. But a squeeze in workers earning doesn't always mean there will be a decline in the economy.
Housing
This effect can be seen in certain saturated housing markets, where the landlord is the boss and the tenant as the worker.
So even when less people have buying power to own their own home, there are enough landlords to own the majority of the homes in the area and they are the ones who keep the housing market prompt up. And if home building is slow enough any new homes that are build will be consumed by these landlords.
European reforms
Is being in Europe going to improve GDP for UK? It's difficult to know, economists struggle to forecast next quarters GDP growth in slightly unforeseen territory let alone long term trends for such an unpredictable event.
Being in Europe working together can help us against certain game theory tactics that can be resolved on a European level. More unified policies for business across Europe can encourage more companies from around the world to enter one common market with simple rules across it and over 500 million middle class citizens, rather than many different markets to understand.
Working in numbers can also be easier for trade deals and comes with many other benefits. But this has to be met by less bureaucracy what many European leaders also want.
Some simple ways countries can try and improve Europe
- More unified qualification system across Europe so different qualifications are more widely know
- Complete single market reforms on telecommunications, transport, energy
- Give OFT and similar bodies more money to do more analysis on how to improve different markets across Europe
- Unify business bureaucracy across Europe so company can expand and move easier
There are many more reforms individual countries can take and more complex policies Europe can take what I will leave for another post.
Competition with government contracts
When governments give out contracts to private firms for public services how do you make sure companies don't just undercut on quality to undercut on price?
One way to do this is not allowing companies to make bids on contracts based on price but based on quality. Companies would get paid based on every person they did services for and meeting minimum standards.
New contracts would be under high initial scrutiny to make sure they met minimum standards and if they didn't meet standards they would not be paid and could lose their contract.
Government have to make steps to make sure the public are informed about the quality of services. If people are uninformed about the quality competitors offer, or unwilling to change to a competitor this can drastically harm improvements to services. - Being a good consumer
People can still make bad decisions by not thinking long term or understanding the bigger picture, as well as generally making bad choices such as with exercise and eating healthy. Government should try and inform people on long term results as well as larger stats rather than just focusing on individuals satisfaction rating.
If the government still believe people are making poor choices government could step in and force policy on private companies such as healthy meals in all schools, though this should be a last step.
- How to reduce cost?
One way to try and reduce cost is having strict rules over their accounts, looking at profits and reducing the tariffs paid out to companies for the same service.
The main problem are companies hiding profits this is why it might be advised to have stricter rules on these companies to police their accounts, another option is to always have a government competitor making sure government isn't being overpriced by a service we can do better at a lower cost.
- Local government vs national
Not in all cases do you want the individual to make the choice on the service they are given such as prisoners choice on prisons and vulnerable people such as drug addicts on rehabilitation services. In certain cases you want local government to choose on behalf of a third party, as tariffs are set by central government local government will more likely choose based on quality as there is no cost element.
- When competition doesn't work
When you have a lack of competition, such as high number of children and low level of school places, we will have to be quick to spot such situations and tougher restrictions will come in place to make sure companies still offer good services and in the worse cases government take over if companies do not meet standards.
How trade unions can help
There are many ways unions can help their workers without damaging competition or harming other people with inflation too much.
Trade unions should be focusing on getting companies to train up their workers so they can compete. Companies can be reluctant to train up workers, fearing after spending money on training workers they will go to another company, measure by unions and company contracts can discourage this happening.
There are many ways unions can help their workers without damaging competition or harming other people with inflation too much.
Trade unions should be focusing on getting companies to train up their workers so they can compete. Companies can be reluctant to train up workers, fearing after spending money on training workers they will go to another company, measure by unions and company contracts can discourage this happening.
- Trade unions should also try and get companies to give workers a chance to progress to improve social mobility.
- If a company is laying off workers because they are not needed anymore unions should be trying to get these workers retrained for other positions in the company or even with another unionized company.
- Unions can also help in getting companies to give out apprenticeships to train up new and existing workers.
Self driving cars
Self driving cars could bring down accident rates, reduce congestion as well as give more the ability to travel by car and allowing people to do what they want traveling from point A to point B.
How can we change the legal system to stop people suing car companies every time there is an accident?
One way is to set up minimum government standards for all self driving cars. You could only sue the car company if you could show your car didn't meet the minimum standards due to problems not in your control but not as a result of general ware and tear from driving, this would come under your responsibly for keeping the car maintained.
Self driving cars could bring down accident rates, reduce congestion as well as give more the ability to travel by car and allowing people to do what they want traveling from point A to point B.
How can we change the legal system to stop people suing car companies every time there is an accident?
One way is to set up minimum government standards for all self driving cars. You could only sue the car company if you could show your car didn't meet the minimum standards due to problems not in your control but not as a result of general ware and tear from driving, this would come under your responsibly for keeping the car maintained.
Game theory damages self interest
Individuals thinking in their own interest can lead to good outcomes for all, but when game theory dynamics comes into play sometimes your own individual best outcomes can be worse overall for people.
It's in your own interest to not pay tax and have other people pay tax for policing/army. Even if only a low percentage paid tax damaging the government's ability to police effectively, it's still in your best interest to not pay tax. If everyone took the best possible position to not pay tax outcomes over all could be worse than if everyone took the worse position for themselves.
Game theory tactics are also evident on national scales, it's generally good for countries to think about themselves but when game theory dynamics come into play it's best to have agreements between countries or a higher authority enforcing the best outcome as it can be difficult to get multiple parties to agree.
This can be seen with CO2 emissions and in nuclear warfare. If a country has a nuclear weapon aimed at you it's in your best interest to have a nuclear weapon aimed at them, but if agreement can be met it's best for you both to agree to get rid of your nuclear weapons.
Individuals thinking in their own interest can lead to good outcomes for all, but when game theory dynamics comes into play sometimes your own individual best outcomes can be worse overall for people.
It's in your own interest to not pay tax and have other people pay tax for policing/army. Even if only a low percentage paid tax damaging the government's ability to police effectively, it's still in your best interest to not pay tax. If everyone took the best possible position to not pay tax outcomes over all could be worse than if everyone took the worse position for themselves.
Game theory tactics are also evident on national scales, it's generally good for countries to think about themselves but when game theory dynamics come into play it's best to have agreements between countries or a higher authority enforcing the best outcome as it can be difficult to get multiple parties to agree.
This can be seen with CO2 emissions and in nuclear warfare. If a country has a nuclear weapon aimed at you it's in your best interest to have a nuclear weapon aimed at them, but if agreement can be met it's best for you both to agree to get rid of your nuclear weapons.
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